Tag Archives: Fed

Thursday Charts

Good morning. Euro recovered some ground across the board mainly due to EURJPY rallying on prospects Japanese elections next month will result in aggressive monetary easing. USDJPY also rallied well above 80.00 – reaching levels last seen in April. There are several important economic events today, such as the US CPI, initial jobless claims and – more importantly – Bernanke’s speech.

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.2775/00 is still intact after recent test, when a reversal candle was formed

Market sentiment: intraday – bearish, short-term – bearish
Potential trade strategy: to hold short while 1.2775/00 is intact, target at 1.2600

EURUSD hourly 11-15-2012

EURUSD hourly 11-15-2012

EURJPY

The reversal candle formed near support at 100 is the one I was waiting to see in my previous article. What happened next was an 200+ points rally.

Market sentiment: intraday – bullish, short-term – bullish
Potential trade strategy: to hold long, target above 104 Continue reading

Thursday Charts of Interest

Good morning. Not much happened across the charts after yesterday’s important events – such as Fed’s interest rate decision, Draghi’s speech etc. The euro continued to weaken against the US dollar but managed to find support in the fib range highlighted below. Should this be a simple corrective decline? we’ll find out very soon

Market sentiment: intraday – bullish, short-term – mixed
Potential trade strategy: to hold a small long position, target at 1.3070

EURUSD 4hrs 10-25-2012

EURUSD 4hrs 10-25-2012

EURGBP

Support zone which was freshly formed a few days ago at .8100 is now providing intraday resistance as EUR failed to hold above.

Market sentiment: intraday – bearish, short-term – bullish
Potential trade strategy: to sell at .8110, target at .8010 Continue reading

Midweek Charts to Watch

Good morning. Dollar is under pressure across the board as Germany’s Constitutional Court is expected to give its approval today to the euro zone’s new bailout fund. Tomorrow’s Fed meeting is another important event that is currently putting weight on the dollar.

EURUSD

Market sentiment: intraday – bullish, short-term – bullish

Potential trade strategy: to hold long, target at 1.30

EURUSD daily 9-12-2012

EURUSD daily 9-12-2012

EURCAD

Resistance at 1.25 is still under pressure but yesterday’s fast recovery suggests that a breakout is underway

Market sentiment: intraday – bullish, short-term – bullish

Potential trade strategy: to buy on break of 1.2500, target at 1.2750 Continue reading

Dollar Up After Fed; Market Awaiting ECB

Good morning. The dollar recovered yesterday after the Fed said yesterday that the economy is weakening. The Fed left unchanged the statement that they would likely hold the rate unchanged, near zero, at least through late 2014 – and left the door open for fresh stimulus. It seems there’s a good chance we won’t see more QE in the next months since election is just around the corner and the Fed doesn’t want to appear political. The market is currently waiting for the ECB at 13:30 GMT, which is today’s major event

EURUSD

Euro declined from the 1.2330 region yesterday in risk-off trade, but it found intraday support 100 points lower, around 1.2230. There isn’t much to do until the ECB press conference.

Market sentiment: intraday – bearish, short-term – bearish

Potential trade strategy: to sell on weakness below 1.2220 or sell on rally to 1.2300/30

EURUSD 4hrs 8-2-2012

EURUSD 4hrs 8-2-2012

Hourly chart:

EURUSD hourly 8-2-2012

EURUSD hourly 8-2-2012

AUDUSD

Aussie dollar has weakened, too, but remains bullish on short-term basis. Anyway, selling on the potential break below 1.0440 is tempting, so it’s worth to keep an eye on this support level

Market sentiment: intraday – bearish, short-term – bullish

Potential trade strategy: to sell on breakdown below 1.0440, target at 1.0330 Continue reading

Midweek Charts That Matter 8/1/12

Good morning. The market is likely to stay quiet until later today, when the ADP Nonfarm Employment Report and ISM Manufacturing Index will be released. The most important event is scheduled in the evening (GMT), and that is the Fed Interest Rate Decision followed by the FOMC Statement. (see Economic Calendar)

EURUSD

Euro is slowly recovering some of Friday’s losses when it pulled back after reaching $1.2390. First resistance starts a few pips above current trading level – at 1.2330 and it is followed by 1.2390/00. I think there is some more upside to be seen as Friday’s decline failed to gain negative momentum. Unless, of course, bad news keep coming from Europe.

Market sentiment: intraday – slightly bullish, short-term – bearish

Potential trade strategy: to buy on break above 1.2330, target at 1.24+

EURUSD daily 8-1-2012

EURUSD daily 8-1-2012

4hrs chart: Continue reading

Thursday Charts 7/26/12

Good morning. Dollar is trading slightly lower across the board today on speculation that the US Fed will expand stimulus. The euro made a few attempts to recover towards $1.22 but eventually failed and is still consolidating gains a few points below 1.2150 – where resistance zone starts. Important events today are: ECB Draghi’s speech and Initial Jobless Claims (see Economic Calendar)

EURUSD

Market sentiment: intraday – slightly bullish, short-term – bearish

Potential trade strategy: buying on strength above 1.2150/70 looks both risky and tempting. Another plan is to look for a selling opportunity around 1.2310

EURUSD hourly 7-26-2012

EURUSD hourly 7-26-2012

4hrs:

EURUSD 4hrs 7-26-2012

EURUSD 4hrs 7-26-2012

USDCHF

Dollar pulled back after flirting with parity but upside remains in focus. Support formed by recent top at .9865 holds (so far) but it all depends on EURUSD’s attempt to climb above 1.2170

Market sentiment: intraday – slightly bearish, short-term – bullish

Potential trade strategy: none (no need to put two eggs in the same basket)

USDCHF 4hrs 7-26-2012

USDCHF 4hrs 7-26-2012

AUDUSD

Aussie dollar bounced off support formed by the rising trendline connecting previous higher lows and trades comfortably above 1.0300 at time of writing. It looks quite bullish for now

Market sentiment: intraday – bullish, short-term – bearish

Potential trade strategy: to buy on minor pullback to 1.0300, target at 1.0450

AUDUSD 4hrs 7-26-2012

AUDUSD 4hrs 7-26-2012

USDCAD

Resistance around 1.0220 held and the US dollar pulled back to test support formed by the median retrace value of last up leg. But pressure is high and I for one doubt it will hold

Market sentiment: intraday – bearish, short-term – bearish

Potential trade strategy: to sell on weakness below 1.0120, target at 1.0050 and parity

USDCAD 4hrs 7-26-2012

USDCAD 4hrs 7-26-2012

AUDCAD

This cross just screams “breakout”

Market sentiment: intraday – bullish, short-term – bullish

Potential trade strategy: to buy on strength/breakout above 1.0510, stop below 1.0450, target at 1.0700+

AUDCAD daily 7-26-2012

AUDCAD daily 7-26-2012

have a great day!

Wednesday Links 7/11/12

Here’s a collection of stories to keep you busy for a while

enjoy

Sunday Satire: The Financial World Through the Eyes of an Artist

Here’s more of williambanzai7’s work. In case you missed the 1st compilation, check it here: Tuesday’s Satire: The Financial World Through the Eyes of an Artist

You can find a lot more of William’s work on his site or his Flickr page, and also follow him on Twitter or Facebook.

Enjoy

Too big to fail

Too Big to Fail

Too Big to Fail

The Ponzi’s about to set sail
They call her the “Too Big To Fail”
If it starts to sink
Ben’s there in a wink
And shouts out the order to “bail”

The Limerick King

Captain Jamie Madoff

Captain Jamie Madoff

Captain Jamie Madoff

Al-Ponzi most wanted list Continue reading

Midweek Charts 3/14/12

What we see depends mainly on what we look for. ~ John Lubbock

Good morning. Dollar rallied across the board, breaking above recent top as Fed did not suggest further quantitative easing. Euro breached support at 1.3100, trading around 1.3040 at time of writing.

USD Index

The sign of a breakout was quite clear after Friday’s rebound: first it was the Wed-Thu’s sell-off, suggesting that sellers were still in line. But Friday’s rebound was a confirmation that the sell-off was weak, hence a corrective move only. Not really a general rule – but when a 2nd sell-off does not result in a decent move downwards (such as the 1st one in February), and one day is enough to recover after 2 days of losses (Wed-Thu) and close above, it becomes pretty obvious that selling is not the best thing to do and bears begin to cover their shorts and it’s time to expect a nice breakout. Let’s see if it holds above 80 (that’s what I’m expecting)

USD Index Chart Daily 3-14-2012

USD Index Chart Daily 3-14-2012

EURUSD

Fib fans most likely enjoyed the decline from 1.33 to current levels. And it doesn’t seem to stop here, so next target should be 1.2950/80

EURUSD Chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

EURUSD Chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

NZDUSD

.8250 is still intact after a 2nd test, so – as noted two days ago – I remain bearish while it holds below. Minor trendline support formed by last higher lows is being tested at time of writing, so it’s worth keeping an eye on it

NZDUSD Chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

NZDUSD Chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

EURJPY

I don’t like current movement because it’s not about this pair, but rather about following USDJPY. It’s like a trailer behind the truck: so what would you bet on?

EURJPY chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

EURJPY chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

GBPUSD

Although it didn’t hold below 1.5650, so the breakdown was short-lived, the recovery looks corrective. Selling into rallies is probably still the best thing to do

GBPUSD Chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

GBPUSD Chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

USDCHF

USDCHF is becoming more interesting, as pivotal resistance at .9250 is being breached

USDCHF Daily Chart 3-14-2012

USDCHF Daily Chart 3-14-2012

have a great day!

Dollar Down After Fed; Euro, Risk Pairs, Metals Rally

Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it. ~ Andre Gide

Good morning. Dollar’s decline continues as Fed says interest rates are likely to stay near zero through late 2014. Therefore, euro, risk pairs and metals rallied big-time – as seen on the charts below. Important events in today’s FX Calendar are: Core Durable Goods, Initial Jobless Claims and New Home Sales

USD Index

Now that support around 79.50 has been breached and the buck is testing session lows, it’s not a good idea to buy dips but rather consider new selling opportunities with stops above former support zone and/or yesterday’s high.

USD Index Chart Daily 1-26-2012

USD Index Chart Daily 1-26-2012

EURUSD

The breakout scenario mentioned yesterday occurred after Fed’s rate decision and now it’s time to expect former resistance at 1.3050 to provide support on dips.

EURUSD Chart 4hrs 1-26-2012

EURUSD Chart 4hrs 1-26-2012

On the daily chart there’s a long tailed candlestick formed yesterday, suggesting that recovery is still strong and pullbacks are finding decent bids.

EURUSD Chart Daily 1-26-2012

EURUSD Chart Daily 1-26-2012

Silver

Silver provides another nice breakout setup so it’s best to keep an eye on this resistance around 33 which is being tested at time of writing

Silver Chart Daily 1-26-2012

Silver Chart Daily 1-26-2012

AUDJPY

As I stated before, AUDJPY is one of the main pairs EURUSD is following right now. 83 is getting closer, acting like a magnet, so no matter what you’re planning to do – be that selling on strength or buying more on the potential breakout – it’s best to wait until this level will be tested, probably a matter of hours.

AUDJPY Chart Daily 1-26-2012

AUDJPY Chart Daily 1-26-2012

EURGBP

EURGBP is back at resistance zone after a short visit to the downside where it found bids yesterday. As said two days ago, I think it would be a good bet to buy on the potential breakout higher – targeting .8500/25

EURGBP Chart Daily 1-26-2012

EURGBP Chart Daily 1-26-2012

AUDNZD

AUD is facing resistance around 1.300 so it is still a good idea to keep an eye on 1.2900 which has a good chance to break soon

AUDNZD Chart 4hrs 1-26-2012

AUDNZD Chart 4hrs 1-26-2012

have a great day!