Tag Archives: Italy

Thursday Charts That Matter

Good morning. Euro continues to weaken after Spain’s downgrade by S&P and ahead of Italy’s bond auction later today. Other important economic events today are the US trade balance and initial jobless claims

EURUSD already erased last week’s gains and it seems there’s much pressure on the $1.2800/25 support level. 1.26 is next floor to watch in case 1.2800/25 fails. I am bearish while it holds below 1.3

Market sentiment: intraday – bearish, short-term – slightly bearish

Potential trade strategy: to sell at 1.2950, stop above 1.300, target at 1.2600

EURUSD daily 10-11-2012

EURUSD daily 10-11-2012

EURGBP

Resistance at .8100 remained intact as EUR started to lose ground across the board. The question now is whether current movement is corrective or not, so it’s time to keep an eye on fib support zone around .8000

Market sentiment: intraday – bearish, short-term – bearish

Potential trade strategy: to buy dips at .8000 if support holds, target at .8100 Continue reading

Dollar Up on Eurozone Downgrades, Euro Drops Further

Confidence is 10% hard work and 90% delusion. ~ Tina Fey

Good morning. Euro fell further against its counterparts as S&P downgraded France, Austria, Italy and Spain by one notch, but it kept Germany’s AAA rating level.

USD Index

It seems that last consolidation cycle has come to an end as the dollar rallied on S&P’s downgrade. More upside is likely and it’s probably best to buy dips as long as there is no sign of trend exhaustion

USD Index Chart Daily 1-16-2012

USD Index Chart Daily 1-16-2012

EURUSD

Euro had a good chance to extend the recovery above $1.29 which was under pressure on Friday’s European trading session but S&P’s downgrade triggered a strong selling. The entire 1.28-1.29 zone is now providing resistance, so keep an eye on it if euro recovers.

Euro VS US Dollar Chart Daily 1-16-2012

Euro VS US Dollar Chart Daily 1-16-2012

Silver

The recovery is intact although silver pulled back on Friday. Intraday charts still look bearish but the daily suggests more bullishness on a short-term basis. However, recovery is still very weak if we compare current upside range to September’s sell-off Continue reading

Euro Recovers, Remains Vulnerable

Quote of the day: “Depend not on fortune, but on conduct.” ~ Publilius Syrus

Good morning. Contrary to my expectations – the dollar lost ground on Friday on hopes that the new leadership in Greece and Italy will help their countries and the Euro-zone, respectively, to avoid a financial disaster.

EURUSD

As we can see in the chart below, the euro is still in recovery mode, at least from a short-term perspective. Resistance formed around 1.3700 has been breached and next upside barrier is now seen around 1.3850. The median retracement of the full move from 1.4200 to 1.3485 also stands around 1.3850, so that makes this level quite challenging. Bulls are probably looking for a break above in order to consider new buying opportunities, targeting recent top at 1.4250. I, for one, still see this upward move as corrective and would rather wait for a selling signal.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 11-14-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 11-14-2011

The weekly chart is a bit more interesting as last week’s candle suggests that the recovery started at 1.3150 in early October is still underway. Anyway, keep in mind that rumors and optimism (more… or less based on reasonable facts) have been the main drivers of current recovery and we’ll most likely have more of the same, therefore technicals make little sense these days.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Weekly 11-14-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Weekly 11-14-2011

GBPUSD

My plan to look for a selling opportunity on the potential break of support around 1.59 is on-hold

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 11-14-2011

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 11-14-2011

but on the other hand – looking for a buying signal on the break higher is also a plan to consider, because of the potential bull flag formation we have on the daily charts:

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 11-14-2011

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 11-14-2011

GBPCHF

GBP is still one of the main CHF’s counterparts to benefit from recent SNB’s statements and there’s probably more upside to be seen. Support at 1.4400 seems quite strong, so buying it while it holds above 1.4400 seems a good bet

British Pound VS Swiss Franc Chart 4hrs 11-14-2011

British Pound VS Swiss Franc Chart 4hrs 11-14-2011

Have a great day!

Bear Flag Broken – Euro Resumes Downtrend; All Eyes on Italy

Quote of the day:“The ability to delude yourself may be an important survival tool.” ~ Jane Wagner

Good morning. The euro has finally exited the consolidation range within the bear flag formation – as noted in my previous article. Current weakness is caused by the fear spreading to Italy in the widening debt crisis, as the Italian borrowing costs surged to 7.25% yesterday. The US Trade Balance and Bernanke’s Speech are some of the key events of today’s Economic Calendar.

EURUSD

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Downtrend resumed as the bear flag formation was breached yesterday. I remain bearish on EURUSD and will look for new selling opportunities if price pulls back towards former support zone around $1.37. Well, maybe that’s a bit too far away

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 11-10-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 11-10-2011

USDCAD

I’ve been keeping an eye on this resistance zone around 1.0230 for a few days and it seems that it is finally being breached.

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart 4hrs 11-10-2011

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart 4hrs 11-10-2011

EURAUD

This is another interesting setup which I’ve addressed recently -  it seems that there’s more upside for EUR against the AUD and 1.36 looks like a reasonable target Continue reading

Euro Retesting Support; Bear Flag Formation Suggesting More Downside

Quote of the day:“Achievable goals are the first step to self improvement.” ~ J. K. Rowling

Good morning. The euro is still trading in range against the dollar after the G20, NFP release and more news coming from Greece. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou agreed to resign after the formation of a new government coalition.

Here’s a couple of charts to start the week:

EURUSD

Downside is still under pressure as the euro failed to maintain momentum at 1.38 and above. A bear flag formation is currently being seen on the 4-hrs chart, so it’s probably a good idea to look for new selling opportunities on the potential break lower, which might be fueled by news from Italy which is in focus these days.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 11-7-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 11-7-2011

USDCHF

The Swiss Franc is losing ground across the board after SNB’s Philipp Hildebrand said that they are ready to act in order to further weaken the franc. Key resistance is not far above current trading levels, starting at .9100 – so it’s probably best to consider buying the dollar and others against the franc.

US Dollar Vs Swiss Franc Chart Daily 11-7-2011

US Dollar Vs Swiss Franc Chart Daily 11-7-2011

USDCAD

Upside remains under pressure as the US dollar holds onto recent gains. A break above 1.0250 is in the cards Continue reading

Risk-Off Trade Returns

Quote of the day: “Everyone is born with genius, but most people only keep it a few minutes.” ~ Edgard Varese

Good morning. Dollar is advancing higher while the euro, Aussie dollar and others are pulling back in risk-off trade as Italian bonds came under renewed pressure yesterday. The euro is already trading well below last week’s pre Brussels agreement market levels. It is a busy week – interest rate decisions being the most important events of the economic calendar, but also the NFP data on Friday.

USD Index

As seen below – the dollar has closed above resistance yesterday and the said line is again providing support. Well, it’s the risk-on / risk-off pattern that dominates the market since the crisis began.

USD Index Chart Daily 11-1-2011

USD Index Chart Daily 11-1-2011

EURUSD

Continue reading

Euro Weakens on Italy Downgrade; Gap Not Filled

Quote of the day:“The secret of getting things done is to act” ~ Dante Alighieri

Good morning. S&P’s downgrade of Italy derailed the gap fill and the euro is retesting yesterday’s low around $1.3600 while writing this. Things are likely to remain ugly for the eurozone in my opinion (and everyone’s except some politicians or few people believing in fairy tales), therefore my plan is either to sell on potential / short-lived rallies or more weakness such as a breakdown below last week’s open. As long as we hold below 1.39-1.40 former support zone, I really don’t see any reason to buy dips – maybe in other crosses, as there are a few currencies outperformed by the EUR these days. German Zew is the most important event in today’s economic calendar. Now let’s see what are some of the interesting charts today

EURUSD

Maybe 1.38 is a bit too far away, so it’s a good idea to keep an eye on the interim resistance around 1.3700 (yesterday’s top – see hourly chart below). Selling in that resistance zone is a plan to consider

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 9-20-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 9-20-2011

and the hourly chart:

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Hourly 9-20-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Hourly 9-20-2011

EURGBP

Continue reading

Rumours and Correlations – a Lethal Combination

Quote of the day: “It is better to offer no excuse than a bad one. ” ~ George Washington 

Good morning. Markets remain under massive pressure as the European bourses got crushed yesterday on rumours that France is losing its AAA rating and that the French bank Société Générale had sought an emergency meeting with President Sarkozy – plunging 21%. Italian banks were hit hard, too. Bad news travels fast, so half of Tuesday’s gains in US equity markets were erased. Futures are recovering right now but gains are still modest. EUR and AUD currency pairs pulled back as equities continued selloff – especially in Europe and Australian unemployment rate rising to an eight-month high in July, raising further concerns about a slowdown in its economy – as if the AUD’s positive correlation to equities wasn’t enough. All eyes are on the European markets today and the US Initial Jobless claims later, which is the key event in the FX Calendar along with Trade Balance figure.

As you can see below, the Financial sector has taken the largest beating

Groups Performance Aug 10

Groups Performance Aug 10

Here are some interesting charts:

AUDUSD – we have a correction into 50%-62% retracement zone yesterday, now recovering towards resistance which stands around yesterday’s open.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Daily Chart 8-11-2011

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Daily Chart 8-11-2011

Retracement is clearer on the hourly chart:

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Hourly Chart 8-11-2011

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Hourly Chart 8-11-2011

EURAUD – this chart is not much different than AUDUSD (inversely correlated) – so we have the same reversal candle formed on Tuesday. Support is intact @1.38 but there are signs of EUR weakness, therefore it’s really worth keeping an eye on this support level as it could break soon.

Euro Vs Australian Dollar Daily Chart 8-11-2011

Euro Vs Australian Dollar Daily Chart 8-11-2011

GBPUSD: cable exited the consolidation range but while uncertainty in the markets is sky high, it’s not clear whether choppy trade is here to stay. However, strictly from a technical perspective – it’s probably best to sell the rallies

British Pound Vs US Dollar Daily Chart 8-11-2011

British Pound Vs US Dollar Daily Chart 8-11-2011

EURCHF – it is still holding surprisingly well after the massive selloff towards parity, but recovery is modest – yet worth betting on it.

Euro Vs Swiss Franc 4hrs Chart 8-11-2011

Euro Vs Swiss Franc 4hrs Chart 8-11-2011

EURUSD – as you can see, both rallies and dips are short-lived and the pair holds into this range, above a very strong support zone. I don’t see any trading opportunities here except maybe waiting to exit the range, preferably to the upside – as the weekly charts are showing decent bullish signs.

Euro Vs US Dollar Daily Chart 8-11-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Daily Chart 8-11-2011

and the weekly chart

Euro Vs US Dollar Weekly Chart 8-11-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Weekly Chart 8-11-2011

have a great day

Sunday Links 8/07/11

Today’s reading suggestions:

Have a sunny Sunday!

In Cage With a Lioness

In Cage With a Lioness

 

Saturday Links 8/06/11

The markets went on a wild ride in the last days and – as if it wasn’t enough – the week ended with the news that S&P downgraded the U.S. debt rating to AA+ from AAA. Well, as the mess is spiraling into gigantic proportions, expect more crazy days/weeks to come and be careful what you bet on.

Here’s a collection of interesting articles from all around the web.

Enjoy your weekend
Tommy on the couch