Tag Archives: quantitative easing

Thursday Charts

Good morning. Euro recovered some ground across the board mainly due to EURJPY rallying on prospects Japanese elections next month will result in aggressive monetary easing. USDJPY also rallied well above 80.00 – reaching levels last seen in April. There are several important economic events today, such as the US CPI, initial jobless claims and – more importantly – Bernanke’s speech.

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.2775/00 is still intact after recent test, when a reversal candle was formed

Market sentiment: intraday – bearish, short-term – bearish
Potential trade strategy: to hold short while 1.2775/00 is intact, target at 1.2600

EURUSD hourly 11-15-2012

EURUSD hourly 11-15-2012

EURJPY

The reversal candle formed near support at 100 is the one I was waiting to see in my previous article. What happened next was an 200+ points rally.

Market sentiment: intraday – bullish, short-term – bullish
Potential trade strategy: to hold long, target above 104 Continue reading

Dollar Up After Fed; Market Awaiting ECB

Good morning. The dollar recovered yesterday after the Fed said yesterday that the economy is weakening. The Fed left unchanged the statement that they would likely hold the rate unchanged, near zero, at least through late 2014 – and left the door open for fresh stimulus. It seems there’s a good chance we won’t see more QE in the next months since election is just around the corner and the Fed doesn’t want to appear political. The market is currently waiting for the ECB at 13:30 GMT, which is today’s major event

EURUSD

Euro declined from the 1.2330 region yesterday in risk-off trade, but it found intraday support 100 points lower, around 1.2230. There isn’t much to do until the ECB press conference.

Market sentiment: intraday – bearish, short-term – bearish

Potential trade strategy: to sell on weakness below 1.2220 or sell on rally to 1.2300/30

EURUSD 4hrs 8-2-2012

EURUSD 4hrs 8-2-2012

Hourly chart:

EURUSD hourly 8-2-2012

EURUSD hourly 8-2-2012

AUDUSD

Aussie dollar has weakened, too, but remains bullish on short-term basis. Anyway, selling on the potential break below 1.0440 is tempting, so it’s worth to keep an eye on this support level

Market sentiment: intraday – bearish, short-term – bullish

Potential trade strategy: to sell on breakdown below 1.0440, target at 1.0330 Continue reading

Wednesday Links 7/11/12

Here’s a collection of stories to keep you busy for a while

enjoy

Midweek Charts 3/14/12

What we see depends mainly on what we look for. ~ John Lubbock

Good morning. Dollar rallied across the board, breaking above recent top as Fed did not suggest further quantitative easing. Euro breached support at 1.3100, trading around 1.3040 at time of writing.

USD Index

The sign of a breakout was quite clear after Friday’s rebound: first it was the Wed-Thu’s sell-off, suggesting that sellers were still in line. But Friday’s rebound was a confirmation that the sell-off was weak, hence a corrective move only. Not really a general rule – but when a 2nd sell-off does not result in a decent move downwards (such as the 1st one in February), and one day is enough to recover after 2 days of losses (Wed-Thu) and close above, it becomes pretty obvious that selling is not the best thing to do and bears begin to cover their shorts and it’s time to expect a nice breakout. Let’s see if it holds above 80 (that’s what I’m expecting)

USD Index Chart Daily 3-14-2012

USD Index Chart Daily 3-14-2012

EURUSD

Fib fans most likely enjoyed the decline from 1.33 to current levels. And it doesn’t seem to stop here, so next target should be 1.2950/80

EURUSD Chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

EURUSD Chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

NZDUSD

.8250 is still intact after a 2nd test, so – as noted two days ago – I remain bearish while it holds below. Minor trendline support formed by last higher lows is being tested at time of writing, so it’s worth keeping an eye on it

NZDUSD Chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

NZDUSD Chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

EURJPY

I don’t like current movement because it’s not about this pair, but rather about following USDJPY. It’s like a trailer behind the truck: so what would you bet on?

EURJPY chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

EURJPY chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

GBPUSD

Although it didn’t hold below 1.5650, so the breakdown was short-lived, the recovery looks corrective. Selling into rallies is probably still the best thing to do

GBPUSD Chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

GBPUSD Chart 4hrs 3-14-2012

USDCHF

USDCHF is becoming more interesting, as pivotal resistance at .9250 is being breached

USDCHF Daily Chart 3-14-2012

USDCHF Daily Chart 3-14-2012

have a great day!

NFP Friday is Here: Dollar in Range, Euro and Risk Pairs Pull Back

First say to yourself what you would be; and then do what you have to do. ~ Epictetus

Good morning. It seems that the euro is getting some relief on growing optimism about the Greece’s debt restructuring. But it’s that day of the month again and everyone is waiting for the NFP.

USD Index

Still in range after last sell-off at resistance around 80.

USD Index Daily 3-9-2012

USD Index Daily 3-9-2012

EURUSD

I guess that the EUR will stay in the 1.3190-1.33 range until the NFP release a bit later today. Intraday studies are bearish at time of writing, as the sell-off started at $1.33 (50% retracement of last down leg) is still in progress. I’m bearish on EURUSD while it holds below 1.33 Continue reading

Tuesday’s Satire: The Financial World Through the Eyes of an Artist

For folks with a sense of humor who like satire and parody, today I want to highlight the work of williambanzai7 – an artist with great talent, a genius in my opinion, which I admire very much.

You can find more of his work, and trust me: there’s a lot more! on his site and his Flickr stream

The financial world through the eyes of an artist

Divine Greed

A MESSAGE FROM GREECEA MESSAGE FROM GREECE
To those who think Greece is OK
The end could be here any day
You bought into lies
And now for your prize
Your wealth will be taken away

The Limerick King

RASTAKEYNESIAN MON
RASTAKEYNESIAN MON
Bernanke-mon lookin’ so high
Bad Man be makin’ us die
Listen-up mon
Redemption be gone
Bloodclot – No Printer No Cry!

The Limerick King

LTRO SIMPLIFIED
LTRO SIMPLIFIED (w/Limerick)
The LTRO is a crane
Attached to an opposite train
Will this sucker go?
Do snakes like the snow?
Are Greeks now enjoying their pain?

The Limerick King

PHRENOLOGICAL MIND OF THE EUROCRAT
PHRENOLOGICAL MIND OF THE EUROCRAT

GREEK DEBT EFFLUENT PROCESSES
BANZAI7: GREEK DEBT EFFLUENT PROCESSES

TREE OF LIARS
TREE OF LIARS

TROI-KAPITALISM
TROI-KAPITALISM (FINAL) Continue reading

Dollar Bounced Off Support; EUR and Metals Sold Off

I am always doing that which I can not do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~ Pablo Picasso

Good morning. Dollar recovered yesterday as Ben Bernanke didn’t hint that he’s picking the easing baton from ECB – which pumps extra 530 billion euros into the financial system through LTRO funding. Euro sold-off along with metals and some of the risk-sensitive currencies, such as AUD.

USD Index

Support around 78 remains intact for now as the dollar is recovering

USD Index Chart Daily 3-1-2012

USD Index Chart Daily 3-1-2012

EURUSD

I thought that a breach of 1.35 was in the cards but it seems that it’s time for a correction. Short-term support around $1.33 is under pressure today and I don’t think that buyers are too confident about this level, as the sell-off doesn’t seem over yet. In case of rallies, a potential intra-day selling point is around 1.3370

EURUSD Chart Daily 3-1-2012

EURUSD Chart Daily 3-1-2012

Silver

Hourly charts are telling a horror story

Silver Chart 4hrs 3-1-2012

Silver Chart 4hrs 3-1-2012

and the weekly is quite interesting, as the sell-off was started at the 62% fib retracement. This time it was 62%, a few months ago it was the 50% of the same down leg, so it’s quite obvious that there are many sellers out there who love the fib numbers. I, for one, still believe that silver will continue to recover and I remain bullish while it holds above 33-34.50 (former consolidation range best seen on the daily chart)

Silver Chart Weekly 3-1-2012

Silver Chart Weekly 3-1-2012

AUDNZD

Maybe not the best setup these days, but at least it’s trading in a “friendly” daily average range. Resistance formed by the falling trendline which is connecting recent lower highs has been breached, so it’s probably a good idea to consider buying opportunities

AUDNZD Chart Daily 3-1-2012

AUDNZD Chart Daily 3-1-2012

GBPUSD

Yesterday’s candle suggests that a reversal is in place, but this time I am not so confident about these signals, and that’s because GBP was clearly “enjoying” an upward breakout yesterday, just before EUR sold off, hence cable being affected by the positive correlation, being a follower, not the main pair to be sold. So I believe it’s still worth holding long with tight stops below 1.59, just in case yesterday’s candle was not a fake signal.

GBPUSD Chart Daily 3-1-2012

GBPUSD Chart Daily 3-1-2012

AUDUSD

Resistance around 1.0820 remains intact after yesterday’s test but there’s still a lot of uncertainty about these levels as the ratio between buyers and sellers seems to be 50%-50% these days. It’s still bullish on short-term and medium term, but intraday charts are bearish (see hourly below)

AUDUSD Chart Daily 3-1-2012

AUDUSD Chart Daily 3-1-2012

Hourly chart:

AUDUSD Chart Hourly 3-1-2012

AUDUSD Chart Hourly 3-1-2012

have a great day!

Weekend Links 10/2/11

Hello. Here are some interesting articles you may be interested in:

Also, don’t miss this video:

Cheers, enjoy your Sunday!

Markets Waiting for FOMC, Bernanke

Quote of the day: “If you know how to spend less than you get, you have the philosopher’s stone.” ~ Benjamin Franklin

Good morning. Big day ahead for financial markets as all eyes are on Fed chairman Ben Bernanke – everyone wondering whether more quantitative easing will be announced or what rabbit can Bernanke pull out of his hat this time? The euro is trading higher against the buck today, as the European Union says ‘good progress’ is being made towards agreeing the release of bailout funds for Greece. Existing Home Sales is another important event on the economic calendar today.

Let’s put some charts on the screen and see what’s going on:

EURUSD

Intraday resistance around 1.3700 highlighted in my report yesterday was a good level to sell but only for a scalp down to 1.3650. I remain bearish on short-term basis and will keep an eye on the 1.38-1.39 resistance zone where next selling round could emerge. Last two daily candles are suggesting that the recovery is likely to continue for a while.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 9-21-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 9-21-2011

and the hourly chart

Euro vs US Dollar Chart Hourly 9-21-2011

Euro vs US Dollar Chart Hourly 9-21-2011

EURGBP

Continue reading

Saturday Links 8/27/11

Here’s a reading list on Jackson Hole event, Hurricane Irene, Steve Jobs and more:

have a great weekend!

Beavis in Heaven

Beavis in Heaven