I am always doing that which I can not do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~ Pablo Picasso
Good morning. Dollar recovered yesterday as Ben Bernanke didn’t hint that he’s picking the easing baton from ECB – which pumps extra 530 billion euros into the financial system through LTRO funding. Euro sold-off along with metals and some of the risk-sensitive currencies, such as AUD.
Support around 78 remains intact for now as the dollar is recovering
USD Index Chart Daily 3-1-2012
I thought that a breach of 1.35 was in the cards but it seems that it’s time for a correction. Short-term support around $1.33 is under pressure today and I don’t think that buyers are too confident about this level, as the sell-off doesn’t seem over yet. In case of rallies, a potential intra-day selling point is around 1.3370
EURUSD Chart Daily 3-1-2012
Hourly charts are telling a horror story
Silver Chart 4hrs 3-1-2012
and the weekly is quite interesting, as the sell-off was started at the 62% fib retracement. This time it was 62%, a few months ago it was the 50% of the same down leg, so it’s quite obvious that there are many sellers out there who love the fib numbers. I, for one, still believe that silver will continue to recover and I remain bullish while it holds above 33-34.50 (former consolidation range best seen on the daily chart)
Silver Chart Weekly 3-1-2012
Maybe not the best setup these days, but at least it’s trading in a “friendly” daily average range. Resistance formed by the falling trendline which is connecting recent lower highs has been breached, so it’s probably a good idea to consider buying opportunities
AUDNZD Chart Daily 3-1-2012
Yesterday’s candle suggests that a reversal is in place, but this time I am not so confident about these signals, and that’s because GBP was clearly “enjoying” an upward breakout yesterday, just before EUR sold off, hence cable being affected by the positive correlation, being a follower, not the main pair to be sold. So I believe it’s still worth holding long with tight stops below 1.59, just in case yesterday’s candle was not a fake signal.
GBPUSD Chart Daily 3-1-2012
Resistance around 1.0820 remains intact after yesterday’s test but there’s still a lot of uncertainty about these levels as the ratio between buyers and sellers seems to be 50%-50% these days. It’s still bullish on short-term and medium term, but intraday charts are bearish (see hourly below)
AUDUSD Chart Daily 3-1-2012
AUDUSD Chart Hourly 3-1-2012
have a great day!